MANY more disadvantaged students will struggle to get into university as demand grows, a report by Ucas warned today.

Nearly one in 11 of the most disadvantaged students could receive no offers by 2030, the analysis by the admissions service found.

This is nearly four times more than the 2.3 per cent who received no offers in 2022.

The analysis also predicted that one in six of students from the most disadvantaged backgrounds could get just one offer in 2030, compared to one in 16 in 2022.

Ucas head of policy Ben Jordan said that the “big challenge” was managing a likely growth in disadvantaged university applicants as demand grows.

He said: “If offer-making behaviour remains as it currently is, what we project is that we’ll see a widening of the offer rate gap.

“Generally speaking, offer rates will likely decline, but our projections indicate that it could be disadvantaged students that miss out — with a greater proportion of these students getting one or less offers, and a smaller proportion receiving three or more.

“A change in offer-making strategies by university and colleges, such as the increased use of contextual information or more targeted offer making to certain cohorts, could reverse some of the risks we observe.”

Lower entry requirements for disadvantaged students may also help this cohort, he said.

Overall, Ucas has forecast more than a million applicants to higher education by the end of the decade, more than 30 per cent higher than last year’s total of 767,000.

It said that universities could introduce targeted offer-making strategies and increase the use of contextual information to ensure disadvantaged students do not miss out.

The projected growth in demand is being driven by a rise in the number of young people in Britain turning 18 as well as the number of international students applying to British universities.

Ucas chief executive Clare Marchant said: “Our national debate has brought into sharp focus the challenges surrounding growth of competition and availability of options to students.

“Adapting offer-making behaviours will help mitigate the risk presented by the Journey to a Million and an increase in applicants resulting in an increase in disappointment, with the potential for those at the lower end of the attainment spectrum being squeezed out.”

Joe Seddon, who created an app that helps people from low-income families get into Oxford and Cambridge University, said: “Contextual admissions is no longer a nice to have - it is a necessity.

“As university applications become increasingly competitive, universities need to make sure they’re fully utilising data to admit the very best talent from low-opportunity backgrounds.”

A Universities UK spokesperson said: “Universities are committed to narrowing equality gaps further, even as demand is expected to grow in the coming years.”