PETER MERTENS delivered the annual Fenner Brockway lecture, The Earth Tilts, Europe Trembles, based upon his book of the same name, written in September 2023. Indicating key “tilts” in the world political scene, Mertens went on to elaborate on the implications of each for the political map of Europe and more widely, for world peace.

The first tilt Mertens identified was the shifting global order, stating that: “The most fundamental shift we are witnessing is the change in the global economic centre of gravity towards Asia, and more specifically towards China (and India).”

China in particular is identified as a global economic force “a rising superpower in full development” unlike the US which, “while still a formidable force, is in the early stages of decline,” or the European Union, an “old” superpower “on a downward trajectory.”

Key to these global changes, argues Mertens, are the rapid advances in technology, as the world pivots “towards fossil-free production and towards artificial intelligence.”

In this context, access to minerals becomes critical to the next stage of economic and technological development. This is especially true of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite, for which as Mertens points out, “Europe and the US are heavily reliant on China for these critical minerals, importing as much as 95 per cent.”

The desire to reduce reliance on China for such resources is clearly behind the mineral rights deal concluded by the US with Ukraine recently and the sabre-rattling of the Trump administration in the direction of Greenland.

With regard to the return of Donald Trump to the White House in the US, a further “tilt’, Mertens is quite clear that “with Trump’s return, the most reactionary faction of capital takes the White House. He seems to have learned from his first term and is preparing a programme to completely purge the administration and install loyalists.”

This process is highlighted through the licence given to billionaire Elon Musk, an unelected crony of Trump, who has been given wide-ranging access to the US federal payment system with an instruction to find “efficiencies” through the newly created Department of Government Efficiency.

Mertens is clear on the implications of this development in US politics stating: “This, my friends, isn’t efficiency; it’s a hostile and open takeover of the state by the billionaire class. Of course, the billionaire class has always been in control of US politics, but this is the first time it has happened so openly and blatantly.”

Rearmament in Europe is identified as a further “tilt” with the decision of the German Parliament on March 18 to vote in favour of amendments which will revise its constitution. The changes will allow for massive spending on the military, with Mertens indicating that: “The very parties who for years claimed there was no money for public services are now conjuring up vast sums for weapons with the flick of a finger. This is the largest rearmament package in German history, all in the name of making the country ‘kriegstuchtig’ again  — ‘fit for war’.”

The claim that Europe needs to “rearm” is predicated on the myth of a threat from Russia, a claim that has been perpetrated by the Nato Alliance in order to justify its arms build-up and encirclement of Russia over the past 30 years.

Quite what “rearmament” means when European Union member states spent €326 billion in the past year alone on the military, 2.2 times more than a decade ago, is clearly a question to be addressed.

In relation to the war in Ukraine, Mertens takes to task European leaders who have been more concerned with fuelling the war than looking to find a peaceful settlement over the past three years, asking: “Why haven’t European leaders themselves been engaging in serious diplomatic initiatives with Moscow and Washington over the past three years? Russia is not going to vanish off the map. We need a European diplomacy that charts its own course, based on international law and pragmatic relations with all global powers, be it the US, China, India, or Russia.”

Mertens also goes on to debunk the myth that spending on war has an economic benefit pointing out that, “every euro spent on weapons is a euro not spent on schools, hospitals, or social programmes.”

This assessment chimes with a recent economic analysis by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, which finds that living standards for families in Britain will be worse in 2030 than in 2025, with those on the lowest incomes declining twice as fast as middle and high earners. Increased military spending, as proposed by Keir Starmer and the Labour leadership, will only exacerbate this trend. The report indicates that the poorest third are being disproportionately affected by rising housing costs, falling real earnings and frozen tax thresholds.

In the face of these challenges, Mertens does indicate that there is hope for the future with the prospect of building upon “a growing fury, a ‘rage’ among the working class, both in Europe and the US.” Mertens holds out the prospect of a long-term vision based around workers’ parties engaged in the fight for socialism, stating: “This takes time, effort, discipline, and strategic thinking. But it is possible if we are patient, build trust within our movements, invest in education and unity, and dare to speak from the strength of our convictions.”

In concluding his address Mertens stressed this hope for the future and the potential of the working class to play the decisive role in driving change. The possibility to make those changes, in the interests of the many, not the few, based upon a socialist vision was emphasised as Mertens brought his address to a close, stating: “We, the working class, have the power to shape this future. We must resist this slide towards militarism and war. We must demand a Europe that prioritises peace, social justice, and a future where the resources are used to build a better world for all, not to fuel conflict.”

In a political climate in Britain, which is characterised by the rise of right-wing demagogues in Reform UK, the left in general and the Labour leadership in particular, would do well to heed Mertens’s call. Addressing the issues of concern to the working class must be a priority if allegiances are not to shift towards those who claim to support the working class but merely indulge in misleading rhetoric for their own gain.

Mertens’s final words sum up the path to follow: “The perspective of socialism offers us that hope, that vision of a world where co-operation triumphs over competition, and where the needs of the many outweigh the greed of the few.”  

Steve Bishop is a member of Liberation and a senior executive member of the Committee for the Defence of Iranian People’s Rights.