So the party has begun and as Brazilians danced Samba style to the sound of tear gas canisters exploding in the streets and chants of “FIFA GO HOME!”, England fans trudged out of the Arena Da Amazônia in Manaus.

Or did they?  The 2-1 defeat to Italy seemed to confirm the lack of faith in Roy Hodgson’s team in the build up to the tournament.  Had you Googled “England+low expectations” prior to the match you would have been greeted by a raft of stories telling you how little hope the team had.  Even Greg Dyke, the chairman of the FA, appeared to give the team little chance by cheerfully drawing a finger across his throat after the World Cup draw was made in December.

The “low expectations” narrative even framed the BBC’s coverage of the Italy match with Gary Lineker telling viewers to “remember, expectations are low so there’s no need to get nervous…” and that there was “an air of realism among the England fans.”  Yet when Dan Walker, out in Manaus, interviewed a group of said fans heading to the game, confidence abounded with England predicted to win both the group and the match.

Despite such evidence to the contrary, the media still insists on peddling its “low expectations” narrative.  Now, you can make statistics say whatever you want (just ask George Osborne) and ITV did just that when reporting a poll they ran in conjunction with ComRes asking people how they thought the team would do.  

While 16 per cent of respondents thought England would struggle to get out of the group, 28 per cent thought they would lose in the second round and another 34 per cent thought they would progress to the quarter finals or further.  There was of course no context; no comparison with previous years. Perhaps these figures were entirely in keeping with previous pre-tournament feelings.  We’ll probably never know but whatever the case, the expectations ITV were reporting were hardly what I would call “low”.

So where does the “low expectation” narrative come from?  Why has the media, particularly the tabloid press, seemingly moved away from the previous boom-and-bust template of over-expectation followed by disappointment?  (A template in which the manager — not deeper, more relevant long-term structural issues - was held responsible for ‘failure’ — itself an ill-defined concept — and more often than not offered up as a cathartic, cleansing sacrifice allowing the cycle to begin again.)

Well, in a sense they haven’t. There is a short-term, tournament-focused element to the cycle but also a longer-term, over-arching one that reflects how the media represents the socio-economic state of the nation.  The first manifestation of this came in the 1950s.  England might have won the war but she was in the process of losing the peace and her Empire and struggling to come to terms with the onset of the Cold War.  

While defeat by the part-timers of America in 1950 passed with little comment, the 6-3 Wembley drubbing at the hands of (communist) Hungary three years later did not.  In the intervening period the press had begun to render England as the country that had given football to the world.  Every defeat had implications for the nation and reporting of the England team would never be the same again.

The 1980s and early 1990s was dominated by Thatchersim and the rampant bingo-jingoism of the three-way circulation war between The Sun, The Star and The Daily Mirror.  Sir Bobby Robson and Graham Taylor were caught in the cross-fire; the latter fatally.  The house-price fuelled economic boom and multi-culturalism of the late-90s and early naughties was mirrored by the acquisitive ‘Golden’ Generation and the appointment of cosmopolitan, foreign managers but that all came shuddering to a halt with the credit crunch, which brings us more-or-less to the present day.

For the last few years economic forecasts for the UK have also been framed by a ‘low expectation’ narrative.  Any growth is deemed a vindication of the policies of our old chum Mr Osborne and in some extreme cases so even is a contraction of the economy (as long as it is a smaller contraction than in previous quarters).  It is against this backdrop that an England team which, let’s not forget, were unbeaten in open play at Euro 2012, finished top of a group including France, Sweden and co-hosts Ukraine and were a penalty shootout away from the semi-finals, entered the World Cup.  Just as the boom-and-bust narrative was not based on a realistic assessment of England’s chances neither is the new low-expectation narrative.

Roger Domeneghetti is the author of From the Back Page to the Front Room: Football’s Journey Through the English Media, available in August from Ockley Books.