MYANMAR’S Rakhine state, which is home to the Rohingya minority and engulfed in a conflict between government forces and a powerful ethnic group, could face an imminent acute famine, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has warned.

In a damning report published on Thursday, the UN agency says that “a perfect storm is brewing” that has put western Rakhine “on the precipice of an unprecedented disaster.”

The report, titled: Rakhine: A Famine in the Making, points to a chain of interlinked developments, including restrictions on goods from elsewhere in Myanmar and from neighbouring Bangladesh, an absence of income for residents, hyperinflation, significantly reduced food production and a lack of essential services and a social safety net.

As a result, UNDP says, “an already highly vulnerable population may be on the brink of collapse in the coming months.”

Many members of Myanmar’s Buddhist majority consider the Rohingya Muslim minority to be Bengalis from Bangladesh, even though their families have lived in the country for generations.

In August 2017, attacks by a Rohingya insurgent group on government security personnel triggered a brutal campaign by the military that led at least 740,000 Rohingya to flee to Bangladesh. 

The military is accused of mass rape, killings and burning thousands of homes.

Since Myanmar's military seized power in 2021 from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, pro-democracy guerillas and ethnic minority armed groups have been attempting to topple the military junta.

Last November, the Arakan Army, which seeks autonomy from the central government, began an offensive against the military in Rakhine and has gained control of more than half of its townships. 

With domestic and international markets no longer accessible because of blockades, UNDP says that people’s incomes are collapsing because they can’t export goods, with agricultural jobs disappearing for the same reason.

“Rakhine could face acute famine imminently,” the report warns.

“Internal rice production is plummeting due to a lack of seeds, fertilisers, severe weather conditions, a steep rise in the number of internally displaced people who can longer engage in cultivation, and escalating conflict.”

“This will leave over two million people at risk of starvation,” the UN agency says.

UNDP called for immediate action to allow goods and humanitarian aid into Rakhine, enable unimpeded access for aid workers and ensure their safety and urgently provide financial resources to enable the agricultural sector to recover.

“Without urgent action, 95 per cent of the population will regress into survival mode, left to fend for themselves amid skyrocketing prices, widespread unemployment and heightened insecurity,” the report warns.