ALMOST 15 years ago, historian Alfred McCoy wrote predicting that “the demise of the US as the global superpower could come … in 2025.” He was probably a little early in his prediction, though there is still time for him to be proven correct.

McCoy envisaged a world in which China, India, Iran and Russia would all “provocatively challenge” the dominion of the “fading superpower” and that the US would be riven with “violent clashes and divisive debates” and run by a “far-right patriot” president threatening military and economic punishment for anyone who dared challenge US hegemony.

So prescient was his prediction that McCoy revisited his analysis in The Nation last November and found little cause for changing his forecast.
 
However, in one key aspect, I suspect he may be wrong. McCoy expects that the “American century ends in silence,” with the world paying little attention despite the threats and belligerence of Trump and his cohort, but the signs are that the US empire will not die quietly.
 
So far, the reaction of most Western nations and China to Trump’s economic threats has been fairly resolute: Canada responded to his 25 per cent duty on most Canadian imports in a reciprocal manner and is negotiating a new market with the EU for its energy in the face of the 10 per cent tariff imposed on that.

China has imposed retaliatory tariffs on US goods, Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum faced down Trump, threatening tit-for-tat tariffs and warning that her country would simply sell its products elsewhere.

Trump, at the time of writing, has caved in to Mexico and Canada and said that goods that come under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement trade deal — which constitute most of Mexico’s exports — will not be subject to tariffs until at least April 2. What happens after that remains to be seen, but even his moves so far have caused US markets to implode.
 
Even tiny Panama has said it will veto Trump’s attempt to take control of the Panama Canal via a Blackrock purchase of the Chinese company that owns the ports at either end and will resist any military moves, with President Jose Raul Mulino saying the canal will be Panama’s “forever.”

The impact of the near-universal US trade war on the US economy, its employment and the prices paid by its citizens, along with the “wild west” assault on government institutions, services and budgets, has led to a collapse in his approval ratings even among his base, which is likely to lead to Trump pushing even harder on military and colonial fronts in an attempt to rally support and distract the attention of the public from domestic issues. But that is not running smoothly either.
 
Most of Trump’s military and imperialist posturing has so far been met by a similar response to the economic threats. His comments on making Canada the 51st US state were derided by politicians and the public and have seen many stores empty their shelves of US produce in protest, along with the Liquor Control Board of Ontario, one of the biggest alcohol purchasers in the world, and other Canadian provinces, which have stripped all US-made drinks, preventing any retailers in their provinces stocking any of them, while Canadians are increasingly boycotting US goods that remain on sale.
 
Trump’s ambition to obtain Greenland from Denmark, whether financially or militarily, has been furiously rejected by the Danish government and saw France offer military support in case he tried, while outraged Greenlanders are reported to be treating this week’s general election as a referendum on independence from Denmark or anyone else.
 
The Western exception to Trump’s military-related manoeuvres has been the capitulation of Britain and EU governments to Trump’s demand for more military spending so that the US doesn’t have to — yet while Trump pushes for peace in Ukraine, Starmer and his EU counterparts are trying to turn even that into an excuse for more military adventurism, saying that they must build up their militaries even if there is peace between Ukraine and Russia, laughably claiming that they will put “boots on the ground” in Ukraine in order to “protect the peace.”

Meekly, Britain is recommending that Ukraine agree to Trump’s exorbitant demand for up to half of its vast mineral resources, not even on the promise of future assistance but for past services rendered.
 
But none of these Trump manoeuvres appears to be going well in terms of shoring up US hegemony, and while many of Trump’s administration are China “hawks” eager for military confrontation with the US’s biggest economic challenger, it seems likely — and is to be hoped — that US generals would see it for the madness it is.
 
But one area in which Trump’s wildness has a prospect of coming to fruition is Western Asia, particularly Palestine and Iran. Trump already supports Israel’s annexation of the West Bank and while most of the world reeled at, and mocked, his genocidal, AI-generated “Trump Gaza” video portraying his vision of Gaza as a kind of Las Vegas on the Mediterranean, complete with giant gold statues of himself — and was quick to point out that his plan to expel all Palestinians from Gaza to achieve it is a gross violation of international law — the reaction of Israel, the US’s “aircraft carrier in the Middle East,” was very different.
 
The Netanyahu government welcomed the plan (despite its unflattering portrayal of Netanyahu lolling next to Trump on a beach recliner) and took it as a signal to become even more open in its expressions of genocidal intent for Gaza and its contempt for international law and the Geneva Conventions.

Israel not only quickly manufactured an end to its ceasefire agreement, which it had never really honoured anyway, but announced a complete blockade of all humanitarian aid into Gaza, followed by an immediate cut-off of all electricity into the “open-air prison” and bombing assaults on Gaza’s few surviving water-desalination facilities.
 
These are unequivocal war crimes and crimes against humanity and Israel has previously tried to deny blocking aid even when the facts were irrefutable. Now, emboldened by Trump’s disregard for international law and opinion, it is declaring it openly.
 
Netanyahu is also emboldened in his ambition for a US-Israel war on Iran and appears to believe he now has a free hand to bomb Iran’s nuclear development facilities.

Whether he can damage these significantly is unclear, since most are reportedly now deep underground beyond the reach of even “bunker-busting” bombs. The US has this week ended its waiver for Iraq to buy electricity from Iran as part of an escalated economic blockade on Iran that is also creating a crisis in Iraq.
 
Further escalations, and certainly any US participation in or support for military action, may trigger retaliation by Iran and its allies, including an intensified blockade of shipping and potentially attacks on US interests in the region, leading to the global oil crisis that many have feared since Israel and Iran’s missile exchanges last year.
 
With Trump’s economic and military posturing in the global North floundering and his popularity diving at home, the danger that he will gamble everything on a major move in Western Asia is clear. The world, and the innocent people of Gaza and the West Bank most of all, will suffer if the “American century” goes out not with a whimper but with a bang.
 
Claudia Webbe was the Member of Parliament for Leicester East (2019-24). You can follow her at www.facebook.com/claudiaforLE and twitter.com/ClaudiaWebbe.