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Russian President Vladimir Putin came away from talks in Minsk yesterday with the prize of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.
From Sunday, guns will fall silent, heavy weapons will retreat from the front and Kiev will start trading broad autonomy for the east to get back control of Ukraine’s Russian border by the end of 2015.
Or at least, that was the theory. However, no sooner had the deal been announced than Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko started to change his tune.
And even in announcing the plan, Russia and Ukraine differed over what exactly they had agreed to in the marathon 16-hour talks, including the status of Debaltseve, a key town now under rebel siege.
Mr Putin told reporters that the agreement envisaged a ceasefire beginning at 10pm on Sunday and special status for Ukraine’s separatist regions, with provisions to address border concerns and humanitarian issues.
But Kiev’s President Poroshenko said there was no agreement on autonomy or federalisation for eastern Ukraine.
However, the deal requires the Ukrainian parliament to give wide powers to the eastern regions as a condition for restoring Ukraine’s full control over its border with Russia.
Uncertainty remained even on the ceasefire, as Mr Putin admitted that he and Mr Poroshenko disagreed on the situation at the crucial government-held town of Debaltseve.
The town is a key transport hub between the rebels’ two main cities of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Mr Putin said the rebels fighting there had surrounded the Ukrainian forces and expected them to surrender, an evaluation that Mr Poroshenko rejected.
In rebel-held Donetsk, residents who have seen their city pounded daily by Kiev’s artillery since late May were sceptical of the agreement.
“We will see whether there will be a ceasefire or not,” said resident Tatyana Griedzheva. “You have seen it with your own eyes, the kind of ceasefire that we have already had.”
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who brokered the talks, said there was a “glimmer of hope” for Ukraine, but a ceasefire announced in September failed to have any lasting effect.
