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Obama admits defeat

Behind this week’s historic rapprochement is a fear that the US will miss out on an economic bonanza as Cuba joins the ranks of the oil-producing nations. STEVEN WALKER reports

The news on Wednesday that US President Barack Obama had started the process of ending the nearly 60 year old economic blockade of Cuba is testimony to the heroic struggles of the Cuban people and the inspirational leadership of Fidel Castro, the Communist Party of Cuba and the current Cuban president — Fidel’s younger brother Raul Castro. 

This is a truly historic moment and includes the announcement of the release of the three remaining prisoners of the original Miami Five, who were falsely imprisoned on espionage charges after their arrest in September 1998 and conviction in an unjust trial in 2001.

President Raul Castro said that relations between Cuba and the United States will be reset. 

“We have agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations, but this does not mean that the main issue has been resolved — the blockade that generates economic losses and humanitarian problems in our country must stop,” Castro said.

He said that the ongoing Cuban revolution is supported by the population: “Cubans have courageously shown that, despite the adversities, they are committed to the revolution,” he said of the egalitarian and humanitarian principles of the communist state, adding: “We should take mutual steps to advance towards the normalisation of the relationship between both countries.” 

He called on President Obama to lift the half-century economic blockade, saying: “The president could modify its implementation by using his executive powers,” and, in a sign of the improved relations, added: “We will continue discussing these issues in the future.”

Negotiations between Cuba and the United States began 18 months ago, with the encouragement of Pope Francis. The secret talks were hosted in Canada, a country with a historical friendly relationship with Cuba, and a final meeting took place in the Vatican. 

The Pope will have been aware of the decision by Fidel Castro to remove the atheist absolute from the Cuban constitution in 1992, which enabled two papal visits to take place afterwards. Cuban society is still strongly identified with Catholicism — as is Fidel Castro, who was educated by Jesuit teachers.

The Cuba Solidarity Campaign in Britain and similar campaigning groups around the world can allow themselves to feel a great deal of satisfaction and are living proof that if you struggle hard enough and the cause is just you will overcome obstacles and the resistance of oppressors. 

Rob Miller, CSC director in Britain, said: “This is the right thing to do. It is truly wonderful news for the Miami Five, their families, all those who have campaigned to see this day and above all for the Cuban people. 

“We now hope that this will see the end of 50 years of the failed policy of aggression and blockade and the beginning of a new era of friendly relations between two countries and two peoples.”

In the US, demographic shifts in Miami have softened the political influence of the anti-Castro exiles with younger Cuban Americans and recent immigrants more open to engagement. 

In Cuba, limited economic reforms carried out by Raul Castro have met with approval from the US, in particular the business community, which smells an opportunity, especially given recent economic developments on the island. 

Cuba is regularly battered by hurricanes and suffers economically because of its reliance on agriculture for food and sugar cane for export. However, while its location puts it in the path of hurricanes, it has also endowed it with a potentially huge economic boon from natural resources. 

 

In 2008 oil was discovered in significant amounts in Cuba’s share of the Gulf of Mexico. If recent estimates are correct, it means Cuba has enough oil reserves to propel it into the ranks of the big energy powers. 

The government announced there may be more than 20bn barrels of recoverable oil in offshore fields, more than twice the previous estimate. 

This puts Cuba’s reserves on a par with those of the US and into the world’s top 20. 

Obama will also be mindful of recent trade agreements being reached between China and Cuba and will want to mitigate Chinese influence as its global economic and military power strengthens.

Back in 2008 Cuba’s unexpected arrival into the big oil league was predicted to increase pressure on the next US administration to loosen the embargo and to let US oil companies participate in the bonanza and reduce US dependency on the Middle East. 

Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a Cuba energy specialist at the University of Nebraska, said: “Up until now the embargo did not really impact on us in a substantive, strategic way. Oil is different. It’s something we need and want.” 

In addition, Cuba has been mediating the most successful attempt so far to achieve peace between the Colombian government and Farc rebels, making its inclusion on the US list of states that sponsor terrorism look increasingly bizarre. 

In other words Cuba has now been acknowledged never to have sponsored terrorism, but to have serve as a beacon to other countries in the region as to how a country can be organised on communist principles to benefit the majority rather than the minority. 

Cuba has been welcomed into Latin American regional bodies hosting several bilateral conferences in recent years and gained an invitation to the Summit of the Americas in April 2014. 

The Obama administration is simply playing catch-up with the tide of events as more left-wing governments are elected across the region and have formed solid alliances in the US backyard.

Obama has acknowledged that the economic embargo had failed and, instead of removing the communist government, it had only hurt the Cuban people. 

Independent experts have calculated that the cost to Cuba’s economy in the past 54 years has been £75 billion — and £4 billion in the last year alone. 

In the nuances of political choreography it did not pass unnoticed that Obama made a very direct personal contact with Raoul Castro at Nelson Mandela’s memorial service earlier this year. 

President Obama shook hands with his Cuban counterpart — the first leader-to-leader contact since Bill Clinton had a similar brush-by with Fidel Castro at a UN summit in New York in 2000. The muted reaction to that handshake spoke volumes.

Recent polls bolster the argument that the climate was right for Obama to concede defeat. One conducted by the Atlantic Council in February showed that 64 per cent of Cubans living in South Florida favoured normalisation of relations with Cuba or more direct engagement. 

When the poll expanded to those of Cuban descent throughout Florida, 79 per cent favoured normalisation or engagement. 

The Latino vote in general across the US but especially in Democratic Party congressional seats is now seen as pivotal in the 2016 US presidential elections. 

So the historic news can be seen to be another example of how US capitalism can shift political certainties and ensure that the US political leadership reflects its priorities in the formation of the country’s policies. 

 

Steven Walker is a member of the Cuba Solidarity Campaign and author of Fidel Castro: From Infant To Icon (Kindle Books).

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