With a short-priced favourite in the line-up and betting of 7/1 bar one, this afternoon’s Investec Epsom Derby should really be an open and shut case but then along comes the dreaded British weather!

With thunder, lightning and very heavy rain due from midday there is no knowing what the ground will be like come 4.00 and therefore it is hard to be adamant about a wager in the premier classic.

Aiden O’Brien’s hotpot Australia owes his position to his amazing breeding, quotes from the trainer and the fact that bookmakers agree with both that one fact and that one opinion. 

The evidence on the track suggests the best is still to come but will it be over a mile and a half, possibly with give in the ground?

His run in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket was very promising, being in the firing line throughout and only giving best to specialist milers inside the final 150 yards or so.

If the current status quo of good ground is maintained then he would be my selection but the weather forecast threatens that set-up and a better each-way wager has to be Fascinating Rock at around 14/1 or possibly Kingston Hill but at only half those odds.

The last named looked to be enjoying himself when sauntering around the track in the Breakfast With Stars morning and any rain that falls will be a huge bonus for him and indeed a necessity if he is to reverse that Newmarket form with Australia.

But it is Fascinating Rock that remains the understated three-year-old here having won three from three this year. 

Yes, his last-time-out success in the Derrinstown Stud Stakes came courtesy of the stewards’ room but granted a clear run there is little doubt he would have prevailed on the track.

Ebanoran was the horse that denied him that day and he too should run well while the third home, Geoffrey Chaucer, looks sure to improve as he ran very green when asked to quicken that day.

Chester Vase winner Orchestra surely needs the possibly likely downpour to play a part, while Kingfisher will outrun his massive odds with give in the ground as well.

True Story needs a quicker surface to bring his lightning turn of foot into play but stayer in the making Romsdal is more likely to hit the frame at big odds rather than the quirky looking Western Hymn. 

Elsewhere on the card, the more rain the better for Arctic Feeling in the concluding six-furlong contest at 5.25, a race he won last year off the same mark. He gets the vote over Lewisham, Doc Hay and Ashpan Sam.

Open Eagle should go close in the mile and a half handicap at 4.10 especially if the rain arrives, while the “Dash” at 3.15 may go to Evens Stevens from a prime stall slot of 20.

Away from Epsom, I make Alex My Boy a massive player in the Edinburgh Gold Cup at Musselburgh at 3.30.