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Slower pace could favour Cable Bay

Our tipster casts his expert eye over the pick of the weekend’s meets

Goodwood once again takes centre-stage today with the Celebration Mile at the top of the shop at 3.45 but with a disappointing entry of just six runners.

The odds-on favourite will almost certainly be Kodi Bear following his victory in the Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time out and I can understand his position in the market based on his progressive profile. He is the most likely winner.

It will be interesting to see if the rest of the field give him a free role up front this time though, as I reckon that he was marginally flattered by the degree of victory that day.

Fire Ship is the only conceivable player against him at the sharp end which could very well see the market leader slowly winding up the pace from halfway before trying to kick on from the top of the quarter mile marker.

If they don’t go a pace then that could play into the hands of Cable Bay from the Charlie Hills’ yard. Probably a much better horse at seven furlongs, this son of Invincible Spirit has a nice turn of foot at his behest when matters pan out in his favour and as long as his stamina isn’t tested then he could prove to be the value on ground which he adores.

On form, Sussex Stakes third Gabrial has every chance here. Not the most consistent of performers, Richard Fahey’s runner was ridden to place rather than win in that Group One at the Glorious meeting.

But if he is on one of his going days he too is capable of lifting this Group Two prize as is the tough Breton Rock. The last named though is rather in the same court as Cable Bay in that he wouldn’t want a true run race at this trip as seven is more his optimum set-up.

The lightly raced Fox Trotter has a little bit to find with Enlace on previous course and distance running and there should be little between them in the valuable seven furlong handicap at 2.35, but the value in this contest belongs to Lincoln.

Richard Hughes always reckoned this smart handicapper would always be best with plenty of juice in the ground and his record supports this view. When the going has had “soft” somewhere in the description he has a pretty good record at this specialists’ distance.

Last time out was a blot on that record, but he is now down to a playable mark of 100 and could prove to be the each-way value from a stable on a roll.

Jack’s Revenge, Jallota and last year’s third Magic City (unlucky in running) should also run their races in prime conditions and all three are feared.

I think that Show Stealer will relish the step up to seven furlongs in the opening Prestige Stakes at 2.00 and can see off the Mark Johnston-trained Fireglow.

While the best bet elsewhere is Thatcherite in the 3.30 at Beverley, especially if the ground dries out to good then he can reverse recent C&D form with the speedy Pearl Noir.

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