PUBLIC-SECTOR workers will be paid the same in 2020 as they were in 2005, a forecast published today predicts.

The Resolution Foundation says average real pay will fall back below 2004/5 levels by the end of the current parliament.

The think tank said current trends would mean average state pay packets will be £1,700 lower in 2020 than its peak in 2010.

Resolution Foundation economic analyst Adam Corlett said: “While rising inflation is applying the brakes to real pay growth across the board, the outlook for public-sector pay looks particularly weak.

“Pay is now actually falling and, worse, is expected to continue for the rest of the parliament, with levels at the end of the parliament dropping back to levels last seen in 2004.

“Although public-sector pay restraint is important to the government’s deficit reduction plans, falling real pay is likely to see increasing recruitment strains.”

Resolution Foundation said a rise in the minimum wage would protect the lowest earners.

Analysts said pay growth had been particularly poor among health and social workers, and could fall by a further 6 per cent over the next three years.

Unison general secretary Dave Prentis commented: “After years of pay restraint those delivering our public services are facing yet more financial hardship.

“School staff, nurses and council workers are struggling to make ends meet. If ministers don’t reverse their damaging policy of 0 or 1 per cent rises it will be harder to recruit new staff or keep those with experience.”