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Ukip’s success was no political earthquake

KEITH FLETT examines the historical context of the May 22 elections

According to BBC political editor Nick Robinson, wearing a purple tie for the occasion, the Ukip result in the May 22 local elections represented a political earthquake. 

Ukip leader Nigel Farage was unusually more circumspect, referring only to tremors. 

In both cases the statements were notable for being totally free of any historical context.

Political earthquakes certainly do occur but a decline in the percentage of the poll from 23 per cent to 17 per cent, which is what Ukip scored, unreported by the BBC, is not one. Nor is winning fewer than 200 council seats when thousands are up for election.

The most recent example of a significant upheaval in politics is in Greece where the socialist party Pasok, in government as recently as 2012, has declined to a minor political force to be replaced on the left by the more radical Syriza.

The main reason for the fall in Pasok’s fortunes appears to be the role it played in overseeing a significant crisis of Greek capitalism and its inability to offer any solutions to this that would help those thrown out of work and suffering very real hardship.

Britain too has seen political earthquakes at times of crisis. The two most recent were in 1931, after the crash of US capitalism sparked a world economic crisis, and in 1974 when an oil supply and price crisis after the six day war in the Middle East posed the question of whether British capitalism would be able to continue.

In 1931 both Labour and Liberal parties split over how to handle the crisis and whether to impose austerity measures.

At the general election held on October 27 1931, with former Labour prime minister Ramsay MacDonald bidding to lead a national government, the Labour leader Arthur Henderson lost his seat. 

Labour declined from 287 seats to just 46 seats. The Liberals went from 29 per cent of the vote to only 6 per cent and ended up with 26 seats.

By 1945 Labour fortunes had recovered, but it took the Liberals much longer. Indeed a political generation had to pass before they did so.

Forty years ago in February 1974 Tory prime minister Edward Heath called a “who governs Britain?” election on the back of a miners’ strike, power cuts and a three-day working week.

The electorate’s answer was that Labour did, with Harold Wilson winning 301 seats to Heath’s 297. 

The balance of power was held by the Liberals who had increased their seats from six to 14. 

It was not a huge rise in parliamentary representation but their share of the vote had gone up from 7.5 per cent in 1970 to 19.3 per cent four years later. 

Until the recent Clegg crisis that is very much where the party and its Lib Dem successor have remained.

When we look at these examples offering historical context to the May 22 results it can be seen clearly why such advances as were made by Ukip do not amount to a political earthquake or even a mild tremor.

Farage’s party still has control of no local councils and no immediate prospect of getting any, and it has no MPs in Parliament. 

Political change can occur to other rhythms and it may be that the rise of the Green Party to second-placed party in some London boroughs such as Hackney and cities like Liverpool is of longer-term significance than the Ukip vote. 

Political metaphors also offer the idea of up like a rocket and down like a stick which may explain Ukip better. Historically it’s far too soon to say but May 22 was not the stuff of earthquakes.

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