THE Northumberland Plate is the big race of the weekend from a betting perspective and the outcome could depend on how much rain falls at the track on Friday into Saturday morning.

The forecast suggests that it could be spasmodic and so it is anyone’s guess how much rain the course will take in. What we do know is the ground will neither be very fast nor very slow which means top weight Clever Cookie will almost certainly take his chance off a mark of 114.

This progressive performer remains lightly raced on the level on turf with just the eight visits to the racetrack, his last being his most impressive when he readily brushed aside the improving Nabatean in a Listed race over a mile and three-quarters at York.

This extra quarter mile should play in his favour and the more rain the track gets the better for the Peter Niven-trained runner.

Of course it will be no easy task giving 10lbs an upwards away to a competitive field of smart handicappers, but he was strongly fancied to run a big race in the Ascot Gold Cup last week and if he is to live up to that rating then he must go close here despite his welter burden.

Former ante-post favourite Seamour has slipped down the list after drawing box number 22 on the wide outside, but remains a youngster with considerable scope to improve.

He remains in my eyes a huge player and will surely leave behind his mark of 93 in due course. I suspect he could well turn out to be a real star both on the flat and over hurdles over the next three to four years.

Stable-mate Totalize could never get to the leaders last year and is a bit higher in the weights, but like the selection would benefit from any rain and remains a horse with potential when he gets his ground.

Of the remainder, Aramist hails from a yard on fore at the moment and is better than he showed last time out, while the likes of Nearly Caught and outsider Rite To Reign and last year’s second Suegioo should also run well granted some luck in running in what is normally a really rough race.

Elsewhere on the card, Tanzeel can make a winning return in the big handicap sprint at 2.35; he is preferred to Barnet Fair and Barkston Ash, while Zarwaan can defy top weight in the 3.10.

At Newmarket, Hors de Combat is the pick in the Group Three Criterion Stakes at 3.25 after not being disgraced in the Lockinge Stakes and Flemish School can cause an upset in the mile and a half fillies’ handicap at 4.00.

Down 2lbs to a mark of 67, Pucon can make all in the Lingfield 6.15 while the best bet at Chester could be Our Gabrial off top weight in the 5.25.